Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 30, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 30, 2023 MD 2293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma into north-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302325Z - 010100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A marginal risk of severe hail will be possible over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown strengthening cores within the cells near the Red River along the Texas/Oklahoma border. Mid-level cooling associated with the upper-level trough has given way to a small corridor of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg along the OK/TX border. Forecast soundings from the RAP along with objective analysis show steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 c/km and deep layer shear around 35-40 kts. This will support potential for a few instances of severe hail (up to 1-1.25 in). Recent reports of hail up to 3/4 inch have been noted near Childress. Due to short time window within the better instability and due to nocturnal cooling, it is unlikely that the hail threat will be long lived. As such, a watch is not anticipated. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34000016 34350024 34710018 34860011 34930010 35069999 35209954 35139900 34969849 34749825 34369801 34189793 33929795 33519813 33419917 33569977 34000016 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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