Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 1, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 1, 2023 MD 2294 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA Mesoscale Discussion 2294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Far southeast TX and southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010052Z - 010245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A spatially limited threat for a tornado should persist along a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast this evening. DISCUSSION...A deep convective cluster has become confined to the far southeast three counties of TX (Chambers, Jefferson, and Orange). This convection has struggled to organize beyond sporadic attempts at lower-end/transient mid-level rotation. The overall thermodynamic environment, which has been the primary mitigating factor to severe weather thus far, might become slightly more conducive to generating a surface-based supercell as temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s near/just south of this activity along the immediate coast. This should gradually translate east through the rest of the evening into southwest LA, improving upon the nil instability sampled in the 00Z LCH sounding. While the low-level wind profile has been in the process of strengthening over the past few hours, resulting in increasingly enlarged hodographs, confidence remains low that sustained supercell development will occur as depicted in the 23Z RRFS compared to the negligible signal in the 00Z WoFS. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30249413 30369376 30349328 30249298 30089289 29909290 29769299 29739308 29679349 29599407 29549447 29649457 29699457 30249413 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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