Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 1, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 1, 2023 MD 2295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL LA Mesoscale Discussion 2295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Coastal southwest/south-central LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010531Z - 010730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A low-probability threat for a brief tornado along with isolated strong gusts of 40-55 mph will likely persist overnight, but within a spatially confined area of a single parish or two at any one time that should gradually shift east. DISCUSSION...Attempts at brief mesovortex formation appeared to have a relative peak during the 03-04Z time frame before thunderstorm clusters became more oriented from southwest to northeast across far southwest LA. This type of orientation within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime should support a rather limited spatial extent of brief tornado potential at any one time during the early morning. The overlap of upper 60s surface dew points within warm-sector inflow where surface winds have not yet veered appears spatially small, and is presently confined to eastern Cameron Parish. With convection likely regenerating in this southwest-northeast orientation through much of the night, this favorable warm-sector inflow region and resultant brief tornado threat should slowly shift east along the coastal parishes of southwest to south-central LA. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30179264 30229208 30159165 30049133 29849112 29589112 29369128 29399174 29529284 29769315 29929313 30179264 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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