SPC MD 2296

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA

Mesoscale Discussion 2296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011335Z - 011530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for locally strong wind gusts, or perhaps a
brief tornado, may still not be completely negligible with the
ongoing cluster of thunderstorms spreading across/northeast and east
of the Gulfport MS vicinity.  However, this limited severe weather
threat appears likely to diminish as convection weakens through mid
morning.

DISCUSSION...Although convective intensities have been generally
modest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms has exhibited
organized structure during the past few hours as it develops
east-northeastward within 40+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean
flow.  Activity appears rooted above a shallow stable near-surface
layer, supported by forcing for ascent associated with warm
advection, beneath a divergent upper flow field between the polar
and subtropical jets.
  
To this point, the severe weather potential probably has been
limited by weak lapse rates above the stable surface layer, which is
only supporting weak CAPE (as evident in 12Z raob from LIX).  While
forecast soundings suggest that there will be a gradual modification
of the boundary-layer inland of coastal areas ahead of the line into
mid to late morning, a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet still
roughly coincident with the line is forecast to continue to shift
away from coastal areas into the western slopes of the Appalachians.
 As this occurs, weakening low-level forcing for ascent and
gradually shrinking low-level hodographs are expected to result in
diminishing convective trends.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 12/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30458931 31628789 31408715 30718726 30338804 29828916
            30128945 30458931 

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