SPC MD 2297

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 2297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023

Areas affected...middle and upper Texas Coast into portions of
western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 012129Z - 012330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms along a coastal front may
eventually grow upscale into a more organized cluster capable of
damaging winds or a brief tornado. Confidence in storm evolution and
the subsequent severe risk is low.

DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, afternoon observations showed
thunderstorms developing along a coastal front across portions of
the middle TX Coast. Located ahead of a subtle shortwave impulse
embedded within broad southwesterly flow aloft, the coastal front
has slowly been lifting northward through the day. While the
majority of the open warm sector should remain offshore for the next
couple of hours, weak low-level warm advection may allow for
continued thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across
the upper TX coast and into parts of southwestern LA. Modified RAP
sounding show 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-45 kt of effective
shear could support a few organized storms, including short bowing
segments or supercells.

Hi-res guidance also suggests a few stronger storms, with a risk for
damaging gusts or a brief tornado, could evolve as they track along
the coastal front late this afternoon. However, confidence in
sustained organized storms staying near-surface based is low given
the lack of broader-scale forcing for ascent and the slow movement
of the front. However, this could change later tonight as the main
shortwave and increasing mass response from the low-level jet
bolster low-level WAA. Trends will be monitored, but currently, a
weather watch appears unlikely given the narrow warm sector and
limited potential for surface-based storm organization.

..Lyons/Hart.. 12/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   31089273 30999204 30699195 30379199 29999213 29629230
            29549247 29489275 29259398 29079451 28619532 28579587
            28629605 28859617 29109608 29729539 30379451 30829338
            31089273 

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