Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 2, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 2, 2023 MD 2298 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 020013Z - 020145Z SUMMARY...A level 2-Slight Risk will be added with the upcoming 01Z outlook across the central Gulf Coast for the potential of a couple tornadic storms tonight. In the short-term, a gradual increase in the threat for a low-probability brief tornado and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph should occur across coastal/southern LA through late evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster ongoing south of the mouth of the Sabine River should eventually spread northeast towards coastal southern LA. Strong speed shear in the mid to upper-level wind profile will be conducive to updraft rotation, and a few transient/embedded supercells should evolve as the cluster progresses inland amid a modestly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind profiles are currently the limiting factor to a more robust severe threat per time-series of KLCH/TMSY VWP data and the 00Z LIX sounding. 18Z ECMWF and NAM guidance along with the 21Z RAP suggest that low-level flow will increase, especially after 06Z. As such, confidence is low in whether an appreciable tornado threat can be realized this evening, suggesting that watch potential is unlikely in the near-term. But as low-level SRH increases with enlarging hodographs, observational data will be closely monitored for the possibility of a tornado watch later tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29609272 30039220 30868856 30898775 30648746 30268779 29258982 29149168 29609272 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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