SPC MD 2302

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2302 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OH WESTERN PA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NY STATE

Mesoscale Discussion 2302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2023

Areas affected...eastern OH Western PA and far southwest NY State

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031836Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may pose a risk for a brief
tornado, damaging wind gusts and small hail this afternoon. Marginal
buoyancy and uncertainty about the longevity and coverage of the
severe threat suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon observations showed a compact upper-low
across the southern Great Lakes region into eastern OH and western
PA. At the core of this feature, very cold air (-30C 500 mb) temps
were observed moving quickly east. Beneath the cold core aloft,
marginally moist surface conditions (dewpoints in the upper 40s to
low 50s f) and strong forcing for ascent will allow for weak
destabilization through the afternoon. Partial cloud breaks should
also help support 400-600 J/kg of MUCAPE with steep low-level lapse
rates in the lowest 4 km allowing for strong, low-topped, updrafts
to develop and quickly spread eastward. Very strong flow aloft will
support elongated hodographs and favorable vertical shear for
organized storms, including supercell structures and short bowing
segments. Abundant vertical vorticity in the lowest levels may also
support updraft rotation and vertical stretching. A brief tornado,
damaging gusts, and small hail appear possible with the strongest
storms able to develop.

Shallow convection evident in visible imagery over east-central OH
should gradually deepen through the early afternoon as they continue
into PA. The latest HRRR continues these initial updrafts across PA
into far southwest NY by sunset. Uncertainty still remains rather
high on the intensity of individual storms and the overall longevity
of the severe threat. Given these uncertainties, and the marginal
thermodynamics, a WW appears unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Hart.. 12/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41288075 41818024 42297925 42417866 42267824 41907799
            41137820 40647866 40387916 40217971 40218038 40198071
            40328089 40648100 41068088 41288075 

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