Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 7, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 7, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR/Southern MO... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..15_ows.. 12/07/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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