Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 8, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 8, 2023 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... A mid-level jet and an associated upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the central Rockies today. The trough will move into the central Plains and southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will advect northward today across east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. In response to lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet, elevated thunderstorms may initiate and develop as the upper-level trough approaches. The corridor with the greatest potential for convective development should be from east Texas northward across Arkansas and into Missouri. Along the southern part of this corridor, RAP forecast soundings this evening generally increase MUCAPE into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, mainly in northeast Texas and parts of Arkansas. This, combined with 40 knot of effective shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, may support an isolated large-hail threat. Any severe threat could be sustained during the overnight period as large-scale ascent moves into the region ahead of the approaching trough. However, most CAM solutions have trouble initiating storms suggesting convective coverage will be very isolated, making any potential for hail conditional. ..Broyles.. 12/08/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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