SPC Dec 8, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday
evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of
sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z
Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense
mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it.
This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern
Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early
Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter
half of the period.

...Southeast...
A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity
along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward.
Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to
be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant
cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z
deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level
warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the
Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective
development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE
in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb
winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient
low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in
the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and
warm conveyor regions. These will  be conditionally capable of
producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where
scant to meager surface-based instability can develop.

..Grams.. 12/08/2023

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