Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 8, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 8, 2023 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as intense mid-level southerlies become asymmetrically confined ahead of it. This will induce surface cyclogenesis from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into New England through early Monday. Greater surface low deepening should occur during the latter half of the period. ...Southeast... A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from eastern TN to the western FL Panhandle vicinity along a convergent surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Diurnal diabatic heating ahead of this activity is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance, especially the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggests that low-level warm theta-e advection from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas will probably result in a secondary swath of convective development during the day. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg appears unlikely, especially where 850-mb winds greater than 40 kts are prominent. Even so, transient low-level updraft rotation will probably be occasionally noted in the relatively deeper convective elements in both the frontal and warm conveyor regions. These will be conditionally capable of producing a few brief tornadoes and sporadic damaging winds where scant to meager surface-based instability can develop. ..Grams.. 12/08/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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