Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 8, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 8, 2023 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to reflect recent observations and trends in hi-res guidance. Across southwest TX, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions remain likely by early afternoon. The 12 UTC Midland, TX sounding sampled a very dry residual boundary layer atop a shallow nocturnal inversion. Given clear skies across the region, strong diurnal insolation will likely result in a rapid decrease in RH accompanied by strengthening westerly winds by around 18 UTC. 15-25 mph winds with RH in the low teens remains likely, but only modestly dry fuels (ERCs near/below the 50th percentile) should limit a more robust fire weather threat. Along the southern CA coast, an offshore wind regime has become established with a few locations within the coastal mountains reporting wind gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Winds are expected to gradually strengthen and become more widespread through tonight as the offshore pressure gradient strengthens through Saturday morning. Downslope warming/drying should result in a few areas of reduced RH into the teens, but fire weather conditions are generally expected to remain fairly localized for today and much of tonight. Fire weather concerns will increase beginning around 12 UTC Saturday as the offshore pressure gradient approaches peak intensity. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given at least marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is possible. Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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