Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 8, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 8, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TX INTO THE TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will move eastward across parts of the central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. Within the larger-scale trough, an upper-level cyclone initially over MN will evolve into a shortwave that moves eastward through the day, as a surface low moves quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes region toward Hudson Bay. A trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves from the southern Rockies toward the lower/mid MS Valley. A cold front will move across the southern Plains and eventually into parts of the Southeast, with weak surface wave development possible during the day near the ArkLaTex region. ...East TX into the TN Valley... In advance of the cold front, relatively rich low-level moisture will be in place across parts of TX/LA Saturday morning, and stream northward into parts of the Southeast and TN Valley through the day. Modest diurnal heating will support moderate destabilization from east TX into the ArkLaMiss region (MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range), with more modest buoyancy (MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg) potentially extending as far north as southern KY. Meanwhile, increasing deep-layer flow/shear in advance of the approaching upper trough will support long hodographs and increasingly favorable wind profiles for organized convection across the warm sector. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage Saturday afternoon along and perhaps somewhat ahead of the approaching front, as low-level moistening continues and MLCINH is eroded. Effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than sufficient for supercells, though with deep-layer flow largely parallel to the front, a tendency toward a cluster and/or linear mode is expected with time. Large hail will be possible with any sustained supercells. Also, increasing low-level shear will be sufficient to support a tornado threat with any supercells that can be sustained from late afternoon into the evening, especially if a stronger frontal wave can develop. Otherwise, damaging wind and possibly embedded brief tornadoes may become the primary threat Saturday night as storms move eastward, with a gradual weakening trend expected due to diminishing buoyancy. Severe probabilities were expanded northeastward somewhat with this outlook, due to the potential for a couple longer-lived supercells or organized bowing segments to persist into the evening. Higher probabilities were trimmed across parts of east TX, where capping and weaker large-scale ascent are expected to limit storm coverage. ..Dean.. 12/08/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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