SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal
CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have
steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most
deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity
Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during
the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting
between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the
coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to
the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH
reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however,
fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly
receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the
expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. 

The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only
minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble
guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details.

..Moore.. 12/08/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and
towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses.
At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the
Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the
southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more
marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection.
Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the
adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts)
are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry
and support an elevated fire weather threat.

Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday
morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the
day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as
10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel
guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within
the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the
valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological
conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally
elevated conditions are still possible for several hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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