Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 8, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 8, 2023 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of southern coastal CA for Saturday. Offshore pressure gradients across southern CA have steadily been strengthening over the past 6-12 hours, and most deterministic solutions suggest they should reach peak intensity Saturday morning (e.g. DAG-LAX gradient between -6 to -9 mb during the 12-15 UTC period). This should support strong winds gusting between 30-50 mph (with more isolated gusts near 60 mph) within the coastal ranges from eastern Ventura/western LA counties southward to the Mexican border. Downslope warming/drying should support RH reductions into the low teens in the lee of the terrain. Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected; however, fuel guidance continues to suggest that most fuels are only modestly receptive. This should preclude a more robust fire threat, but the expected wind/RH conditions warrant Elevated highlights. The fire weather forecast for southern TX remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent ensemble guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains and towards the lower Mississippi Valley, amplifying as it progresses. At the surface, a cold front will continue to the east through the Plains. Dry, gusty conditions are likely for at least parts of the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley. RH may end up more marginal on Saturday compared to Friday due to the cold advection. Values near 20% appear possible for the Trans-Pecos into the adjacent Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) are probable as well. Fine fuels are expected to be marginally dry and support an elevated fire weather threat. Offshore winds in southern California will likely peak Saturday morning. Moderately strong winds could continue through much of the day, particularly in the wind-prone areas. RH could fall as low as 10-15% in some areas with 15-20% being more common. Recent fuel guidance continues to suggest unreceptive fuels, especially within the higher elevations. Drier fine fuels are possible in the valleys/plains. Despite elevated to critical meteorological conditions, fuels should generally mitigate most concerns. Locally elevated conditions are still possible for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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