SPC Dec 8, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight
across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty
remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the
ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains
evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. 

A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this evening across
parts of western/central MO and move northeastward in conjunction
with an ejecting midlevel shortwave trough. While favorable
deep-layer shear may support some organization with this cluster,
the hail threat appears limited by weak buoyancy and a primarily
cluster/linear mode, while the wind threat will be limited by
cool/stable near-surface conditions. This area will continue to be
monitored into the evening, in case shorter-term observational
trends support somewhat more favorable instability across the
region. Also, the general thunderstorm area has been expanded
slightly northeastward, since stronger convection may reach portions
of southeast WI before the end of the period.

..Dean.. 12/08/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/

...Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing
to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the
east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the
central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F
surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent
tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in
advance of a front and dryline across Texas.

Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and
tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the
late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the
region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast
Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south.

Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy
should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave
across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the
primary surface risk should be focused farther south. 

A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas
this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard
amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that
a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into
the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also
exist mainly across portions of Arkansas.

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