SPC MD 2303

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Areas affected...western Arkansas...far southeast Oklahoma...far
northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090325Z - 090530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with the strongest convection this
evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Pronounced surface front is advancing across eastern
OK/northwest AR this evening. This boundary will continue surging
east in response to a progressive short-wave trough approaching the
MS Valley. Boundary-layer moisture has gradually returned to the
Arklatex region where surface dew points are now in the lower 60s as
far north as Hot Springs. Over the last hour or so, frontal
convergence has instigated deeper/longer-lived updrafts over
southeast OK. This activity is developing within an environment
characterized by steepening mid-level lapse rates and modest
buoyancy. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggest this activity is
likely rooted near, or just above the surface within a sheared
regime favorable for sustained, rotating updrafts. Frontal
convection appears to be somewhat linear, but some supercell traits
may be evolving with the convection over McCurtain County OK where
latest MRMS data suggest hail could be approaching 1 inch in
diameter. Further development is expected along the boundary as it
advances into western AR, possibly as far southwest as northeast TX.
Hail should be the main severe threat with this activity. Will
continue to monitor this region, but unless more widespread hail
cores develop a severe thunderstorm watch may not be warranted.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34029505 35729341 35359231 33469398 34029505 

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