Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 9, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 9, 2023 MD 2303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0925 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Areas affected...western Arkansas...far southeast Oklahoma...far northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090325Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with the strongest convection this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Pronounced surface front is advancing across eastern OK/northwest AR this evening. This boundary will continue surging east in response to a progressive short-wave trough approaching the MS Valley. Boundary-layer moisture has gradually returned to the Arklatex region where surface dew points are now in the lower 60s as far north as Hot Springs. Over the last hour or so, frontal convergence has instigated deeper/longer-lived updrafts over southeast OK. This activity is developing within an environment characterized by steepening mid-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggest this activity is likely rooted near, or just above the surface within a sheared regime favorable for sustained, rotating updrafts. Frontal convection appears to be somewhat linear, but some supercell traits may be evolving with the convection over McCurtain County OK where latest MRMS data suggest hail could be approaching 1 inch in diameter. Further development is expected along the boundary as it advances into western AR, possibly as far southwest as northeast TX. Hail should be the main severe threat with this activity. Will continue to monitor this region, but unless more widespread hail cores develop a severe thunderstorm watch may not be warranted. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34029505 35729341 35359231 33469398 34029505 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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