Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 9, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 9, 2023 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as a basal shortwave impulse rapidly ejects across the Deep South to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. Intense mid-level southerlies will become asymmetrically confined ahead of the trough by early morning Monday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur from the central/southern Appalachians across the Northeast into southern New England, with greater deepening during the latter half of the period. ...FL Panhandle to the Delmarva... Overall scenario appears similar to prior days with a broad swath of low-probability tornado and severe thunderstorm wind evident from Sunday morning to evening across the Southeast States. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado/wind threat may be highlighted in later outlooks, seemingly within the eastern SC to southeast VA vicinity. A swath of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing 12Z Sunday from western/central VA to the FL Panhandle, within the warm conveyor ahead of a surface cold front steadily progressing eastward. Morning severe potential should generally be confined to the FL/GA portion of the risk area, where mid 60s surface dew points should be more common ahead of the early-day convection. Diurnal diabatic heating is still expected to be muted, with extensive low-level moistening and resultant cloudiness anticipated. Consensus of guidance still suggests that a separate low-level warm theta-e advection regime from the western Atlantic will aid in a secondary swath of convective development by late morning into the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. A corridor of somewhat greater surface heating may occur between both regimes which could yield a mesoscale area of MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg. Otherwise, amid weak mid-level lapse rates, much of the region should hold with MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg. Low-level hodographs will be more favorably enlarged from the Carolinas northward. Should this become coincident with greater than meager buoyancy, a level 2-SLGT risk may be warranted for Sunday afternoon. More prominent strengthening of low-level southerlies will occur on Sunday night as cyclogenesis intensifies. However, the thermodynamic environment may be mostly to completely overturned by this time frame, given widespread convection. Guidance varies substantially in whether scant to meager surface-based buoyancy can still linger ahead of the cold front, mainly across eastern NC. Should this occur, a brief tornado/damaging-wind threat may be sustained through late evening. ..Grams.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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