Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 9, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 9, 2023 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent on Monday. ...Discussion... Substantial cyclogenesis late D2 should persist into early D3 with the surface low tracking near the New England coast to the Canadian Maritimes. An extremely strong low-level jet ahead of the cyclone, increasing to around 100 kts at 850 mb, may advect sufficient western Atlantic moisture to yield minimal elevated buoyancy. Both 00Z NAM and ECMWF forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE may reach 100 J/kg across Cape Cod to Downeast ME on Monday morning, but this appears to be largely inadequate for charge separation given weak lapse rates above 500 mb. Still, very strong forcing for ascent might support a few lightning flashes within heavier convective elements embedded amid a broad swath of rain. Elsewhere across the CONUS, with the surface cold front expected to clear the south FL Peninsula just prior to 12Z Monday, thunderstorm potential will be negligible. ..Grams.. 12/09/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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