Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 9, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 9, 2023 MD 2305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 714... FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHWEST MS...EASTERN AR...NORTHWEST AL Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 714... Valid 091959Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage expected to increase with time. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded supercells will likely continue to be possible through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN into northwest AL. ..Dean.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33789213 36798744 37298748 37808641 37888586 37788538 37348501 35628616 34618772 33659023 33769178 33789213 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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