SPC MD 2307

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LA...CENTRAL MS...AND FAR WESTERN AL

Mesoscale Discussion 2307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern LA...central MS...and far
western AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 092100Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards will
increase during the next few hours. A Tornado Watch is likely in the
next hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows continued
heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer across portions of
eastern LA into central MS -- ahead of an east-southeastward moving
cold front extending from northwest MS southwestward into northern
LA. Additionally, a northeast/southwest-oriented differential
heating zone is evident from central MS into LA. Thunderstorm
development is expected along the front during the next few hours,
as midlevel height falls overspread the frontal zone amid continued
warm-sector destabilization. A linear mode is expected
along/immediately ahead of the front given largely front-parallel
deep-layer flow/shear, with an associated severe-wind threat.
However, current indications are that a weak frontal wave may
develop northeastward along the frontal zone this evening, yielding
a modest low-level mass response and increasing low-level hodograph
size/curvature. This could promote embedded supercell structures and
a tornado risk. This threat will gradually spread eastward along the
cold front into the late evening hours. 

Additional storm development is possible ahead of the cold front in
the vicinity of the differential heating boundary across central MS,
and these storms would likely remain more discrete given weaker
forcing. 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor supercells capable
of large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado threat. Overall,
confidence in the development of sustained/persistent
discrete/semi-discrete supercells is low given lingering capping and
the weak forcing for ascent. 

A Tornado Watch is likely in the next hour for much of the area.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30849217 30799165 30919094 31288985 31818905 32548827
            33168775 33748760 34058783 34268827 34308876 34158939
            33709066 32999214 32589270 32029295 31569299 31079271
            30849217 

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