SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern
CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges.
Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure
gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning
and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by
ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours
of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a
risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous
discussion (below) remain on track.

..Moore.. 12/09/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before
lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the
West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt
of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central
Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High
Plains as a result.

...Southern California...
Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest
winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday
night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may
occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of
winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds,
and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less
receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized.

...Southern High Plains...
As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some
modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds
and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should
remain rather localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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