Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 9, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 9, 2023 MD 2309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 2309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Far eastern Texas into central/northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092242Z - 100015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds into the evening. The tornado threat is expected to be more marginal. A small severe thunderstorm watch may be needed depending on convective trends in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms have formed along the cold front in far eastern Texas and west-central Louisiana. The strongest storm in Natchitoches Parish has exhibited supercell characteristics with a TBSS on KSHV/KPOE radars indicating potential for large hail. The 18Z LCH sounding showed some cooling aloft and modest erosion of a inversion around 800 mb. That warm layer aloft may hinder updrafts until stronger forcing arrives later his evening. The greatest threat for large hail will likely be over the next few hours when storms are more discrete. Storm coverage will increase and the mode will become more linear with time as the synoptic trough digs into the Southeast this evening/overnight. At that time, damaging winds would become the primary threat. Potential for tornadoes should remain more limited with low-level shear and hodograph curvature being rather modest per area VAD profiles. A small severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered, but coverage and intensity may not increase until storms move farther east. Trends will be monitored. ..Wendt/Goss.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30299404 30419443 30839455 31719415 32419314 32749260 32699236 32219211 31109213 30729240 30429305 30279397 30299404 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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