SPC MD 2312

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2312 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY

Mesoscale Discussion 2312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into northeastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092359Z - 100230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat remains possible across portions
of central into northeastern Kentucky. A couple of damaging gusts
and perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out into the early overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Though surface temperatures have been gradually
lowering with the onset of nocturnal cooling, low-level moisture
continues to gradually increase with ongoing warm-air advection.
Coincidentally, an increase in low-level shear has been noted as a
40 kt 850 mb jet overspreads eastern Kentucky, contributing to
enlarging/elongating hodographs. However, the nocturnal cooling is
also contributing to stabilization of the boundary layer, lowering
the confidence in effective ingestion of the more favorable SRH. At
the moment, the severe threat is expected to be isolated at best.
Nonetheless, the presence of an impressively sheared environment
suggests that a couple of damaging gusts or a tornado could manifest
from any storms that ingest surface-based parcels, even for brief
periods of time. As such, a WW issuance appears unlikely, though
conditions will continue to be monitored.

..Squitieri/Goss.. 12/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37738536 38518466 38678408 38728330 38528296 37998273
            37608279 37418302 37318346 37478434 37738536 

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