Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 10, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 10, 2023 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina today. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible over much of the Atlantic Coastal region from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic. ...Atlantic Coastal States... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, as an associated belt of strong mid-level flow translates eastward into the Appalachians and Atlantic coastal states. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, moisture advection will take place from the eastern Gulf Coast States northward to the Mid-Atlantic, maintaining or increasing surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F in most areas. Thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the morning as the front progresses eastward. Strengthening low-level flow ahead of the system will result in a gradual increase in convective coverage throughout the day over the moist sector. In spite of abundant cloud cover and weak instability, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop ahead of the front. Marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from northern Florida northward into the western and central Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic. Over the eastern Carolinas, the severe threat is expected to be greater due to a number of factors. First, model forecasts suggest that a corridor of stronger instability will develop by afternoon from far eastern South Carolina into east-central North Carolina, where MLCAPE is expected to peak around 1000 J/kg. Second, a low-level jet is forecast to move through the central Carolinas during the early afternoon. The combination of stronger instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear and increasing low-level flow will be favorable for rotating storms. As the low-level jet moves through during the early afternoon, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 200 m2/s2 over parts of far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, suggesting that some of the storms could develop a tornado threat. The tornado threat will likely be greatest with storms that remain discrete and develop near the moist axis. A gradual increase in storm coverage is expected during afternoon, with a mixed mode likely. Supercells and organized line segments will likely be capable of wind-damage, with the threat peaking during the early to mid afternoon. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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