Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 10, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 10, 2023 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS/EASTERN VA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible over portions of the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, as well as portions of northern Florida and far southern Georgia. ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 12/10/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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