SPC MD 2326

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...NORTHEASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST VA

Mesoscale Discussion 2326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and
southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101805Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and
southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC,
northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving
clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely
being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence
amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP
data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive
theta-e advection should destabilize the coastal air mass amid
filtered diurnal heating in cloud breaks. The increasing
surface-based instability (albeit weak), coupled with strengthening
low/deep-layer shear -- characterized by increasingly large
clockwise-turning low-level hodographs -- will favor a gradual
increase in severe-storm potential through the afternoon. A couple
tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35047789 34717867 34387909 33997918 33677905 33617865
            33747796 33987750 34587645 35127549 35917541 36497561
            36767578 36867626 36807675 36307698 35577722 35047789 

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