Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 10, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 10, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula. ...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA... An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western parts of the Peninsula. To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few hours. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia... A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon, which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion 2324 for additional short-term details. ...Carolinas/eastern Virginia... Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning, low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and persist through the evening given an advertised increase in low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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