SPC Dec 10, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a couple brief tornadoes remain possible
over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and over
portions of the northwestern Florida Peninsula.

...Western/Northern FL into eastern NC/VA...
An expansive area of moisture and modest instability remains in
place ahead of a cold front and beneath strong meridional flow
aloft. For southern areas, a line of storms may pose a damaging wind
threat by virtue of mixing stronger winds to the surface, and a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out there especially over western
parts of the Peninsula.

To the north, a more favorable area for tornadoes exists from
eastern NC into southeast VA, where VWPs indicate stronger than
forecast 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with subtle boundary layer
warming noted along with surface pressure falls. As such, any
supercell may produce a brief tornado in this area over the next few
hours.

..Jewell.. 12/10/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/

...Northern/central Florida into southeast Georgia...
A quasi-linear band of strong to occasionally severe storms has
persisted into midday from the northeast Gulf of Mexico into
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. Destabilization will
likely remain muted particularly with northern extent into/across
southern Georgia, but some cloud breaks with somewhat stronger
heating is occurring across the central into northern Florida
Peninsula. Short-term guidance advertises a restrengthening of
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL through the afternoon,
which will allow a continuance of well-organized/mostly quasi-linear
storm structures capable of a tornado and localized wind damage risk
where modest destabilization occurs inland. See Mesoscale Discussion
2324 for additional short-term details.

...Carolinas/eastern Virginia...
Although cloud cover remains prevalent through late morning,
low-level moistening continues to occur with increasingly prevalent
middle 60s F surface dewpoints near/east of the front near and
parallel to the spine of the Appalachians at midday. Modest diurnal
destabilization combined with strong deep-layer/low-level shear will
support an increasing potential, at least on an isolated basis, for
some severe storms through the afternoon. This would potentially
include a few semi-discrete supercells/line segments capable of wind
damage and a tornado risk, which could peak into late afternoon and
persist through the evening given an advertised increase in
low-level flow, prior to the front clearing the coast late tonight.

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