Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 11, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 11, 2023 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Southwest... A mid-level low over the Lower CO Valley should pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Scant to meager elevated buoyancy will become increasingly pervasive downstream of this low. Sporadic lightning flashes should be favored in the first half of the period within a modest but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. The bulk of strong mid-level flow should remain confined to Sonora/Chihuahua, but small hail might occur overnight across south NM. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone centered on IL/IN Wednesday afternoon. This will influence persistent east-northeasterly low-level flow across FL, with gradual moistening anticipated. More prominent model differences occur with the depth of this low-level moistening and the erosion of a relatively warm/dry layer centered on 700 mb. In addition, weak lapse rates centered on 400 mb, near the -20 C level, further lowers confidence in whether lower-topped convection can acquire charge separation outside of the FL Straits. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a low thunderstorm probability. ..Grams.. 12/11/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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