Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 11, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 11, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe probabilities appear negligible through D5. An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential during D6-8 continues across the eastern Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. An initially stout surface anticyclone will weaken heading into the weekend over the OH Valley to central Appalachians. A remnant continental polar airmass will largely remain entrenched across the Southeast outside of the FL Peninsula. Deterministic 00Z guidance has trended towards increasing agreement with slow eastward progression of an upper low over the Southwest across the southern Great Plains into the Gulf this weekend. This will likely support cyclogenesis over the predominately offshore (outside of the FL Peninsula) baroclinic zone, which ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have increasingly trended towards supporting their parent deterministic runs. But the degree of cyclone amplification remains quite varied, which has related impacts on timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment. This renders low predictability for a 15 percent severe weather area. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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