SPC Dec 12, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe
hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico
on Wednesday night.

...Southwest...
A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will
pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a
broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM
and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to
meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm
coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day.

Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into
the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east,
with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the
marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly
faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and
through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell
environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM.
Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be
focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal
buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail
highlight this cycle.

...South FL...
Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of
a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH
Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow
across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the
western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and
weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of
showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most
favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where
boundary-layer speed convergence is largest.

..Grams.. 12/12/2023

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