Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 12, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 12, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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