Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 12, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 12, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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