SPC Dec 12, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the
influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S.
Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies.  An
increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within
this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle
Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath
confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging
across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region.  However,
models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this
ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of
Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of
large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland
of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley.

Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast
to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an
embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the
Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern
Rockies by late Wednesday night.

...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains...
Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in
advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across
parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z
Wednesday.  Some of this may become capable of producing lightning,
before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly
divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase
in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre
de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas
Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday.  

Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that
weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau
and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western
New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon.  Aided by strengthening
mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing
thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. 
While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic
profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in
stronger convection.

...Southern Florida...
While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely
to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level
moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support
occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level
convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal
areas.

..Kerr.. 12/12/2023

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