Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 12, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 12, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through daybreak Wednesday. ...20Z Update... Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely rooted near or above 700 mb. The extent of any potential for warm advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear. However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability) has been adjusted somewhat, to focus where latest model output suggests that weak mid-level ascent and slightly cooler mid-level temperatures might contribute to thermodynamic profiles most conducive to lightning. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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