Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 13, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 13, 2023 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and West TX... A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1 will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. ...Far South FL and Deep South TX... A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a low-probability thunder threat. ..Grams.. 12/13/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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