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SPC Dec 14, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel closed low over AZ will continue eastward across NM to
the TX Panhandle by early Friday.  Primarily elevated thunderstorms
will continue to be possible periodically from eastern NM into
northwest TX/western OK where 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE rooted aloft will
coincide with warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity
advection east of the midlevel low.  Farther south and east, an
easterly low-level flow regime will persist along a remnant front
from the FL Straits to the western Gulf of Mexico.  Thermodynamic
profiles will be somewhat marginal for charge separation across Deep
South TX and near the Keys/southeast FL coast within the northwest
edge of a largely modified air mass and convergent low-level flow
near the coast, though isolated flashes will be possible.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/14/2023

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