Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 14, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 14, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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