Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 14, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 14, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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