SPC Dec 14, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north
of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period.  This regime may
trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation
suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but
mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high
across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the
northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada.

In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to
become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across
the southern mid-latitude Pacific.  Downstream of an associated
broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge
appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast,
along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin
and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday.

To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing
likely will be maintained.  It appears that it will continue to
slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as
one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the
Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley,
downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. 

Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning
the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one
notable outlier.  However, there appears better consensus concerning
the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the
subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation
of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late
Friday into Friday night.  This will probably become focused near
the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone
stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface
troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico.  

...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico...
Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along
and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for
ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development
over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday
night.  However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially
across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern
Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability.  Inland
of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted
within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime.

Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts
of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early
afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to
accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/14/2023

Read more

View the full article