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SPC Dec 14, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will
gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and
the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of
southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday.

...20Z Update...
Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across
the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account
for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the
latest trends in model output.

..Kerr.. 12/14/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/

...Synopsis...
Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify
as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great
Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500
J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated
thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High
Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise,
ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low
will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the
US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant
front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal
thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With
poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized
thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through
tonight.

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