Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 15, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 15, 2023 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the northeast coast of Florida along the Southeast Coast into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper trough, with a slightly negative tilt, will likely extend from the Lower OH Valley into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a pair of phased shortwave troughs. Southernmost shortwave is expected to mature significantly as it is moves quickly northeastward, ending the period just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An attendant surface low is also expected deepen notably as it moves northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave from the GA coast to Mid-Atlantic coast. Strong kinematic fields support strong gusts and maybe even a tornado with any deeper, more sustained convection. However, the low's proximity to the coast and inherit uncertain at this forecast range limits the confidence on whether or not the warm sector will exist far enough inland to support buoyancy over land areas. Highest probability for severe storms is current over eastern NC and the Outer Banks, where enough buoyancy for sustained deep convection is most likely. ..Mosier.. 12/15/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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