Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 15, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 15, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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