Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 15, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 15, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the Florida Peninsula and Keys Saturday night, with a few possibly becoming severe and posing a risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Stronger, more zonal westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period, while flow remains more amplified in lower latitudes. The latter regime will include a broad and deep, occluded cyclone over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific and prominent downstream mid/upper ridging across the Pacific coast and much of the Intermountain West. Farther downstream, developments, particularly in the shorter wavelengths, remain more unclear. The axis of mean larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to dig across and east-southeast of the Mississippi Valley Saturday through Saturday night. This may include one embedded short wave perturbation digging across the Texas Gulf coast, before coming in phase with amplifying short wave troughing in a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, across the northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico. Surface cyclogenesis may already be underway along a remnant frontal zone across the south central Gulf of Mexico at the outset of the period, associated with a preceding subtropical perturbation. Substantive further deepening of this cyclone appears probable, but notable differences in its evolution remain apparent within the various model output, particularly as it approaches and crosses the central through northeastern Florida vicinity during the evening and overnight hours. ...Florida Peninsula... Given the model spread concerning the cyclone evolution, coupled with initially dry and stable boundary-layer conditions across much of the peninsula early Saturday and potential increasing inhibition associated with pronounced mid/upper warming Saturday into Saturday night, the risk for severe weather still appears largely conditional at this point. However, destabilization associated with rapid low-level moistening within the inland spreading warm sector, coincident with strengthening deep-layer shear and enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, could become sufficient for organized convection, including supercells, with potential to produce tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Given this concern, slight risk probabilities will be maintained, and extended southward through the remainder of the peninsula and Florida Keys. However, highest severe probabilities may ultimately become focused near and just inland of coastal areas between Tampa and Fort Myers Saturday evening, and near/offshore east central and southeast coastal areas overnight, where low-level forcing and destabilization will be most favorable. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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