SPC Dec 16, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from northeast South
Carolina into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Primary
severe hazard is damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface low likely over the northern FL/southeast GA vicinity early
Sunday morning is forecast to undergo robust deepening throughout
the day at it moves rapidly northward. This low is expected to
further occlude during this period as well, particularly from Sunday
evening onward through early Monday morning. General expectation is
for this low to be in the NJ vicinity by 12Z Monday. Given the
orientation of the coastline and largely meridional motion of the
low, subtle changes to the track of the low could have an outsized
influence on the severe risk. A more easterly track will keep much
of the higher theta-e air offshore, likely confining the severe risk
to the immediate coastal areas and the NC Outer Bank. However, a
more westerly track, even by just 50-75 miles, could place
significantly more land area within the warm sector, particularly
across eastern NC. 

Shear across the warm sector is expected to be very strong,
supported by robust low to mid-level southeasterly flow east of the
center of the deepening cyclone. The warm sector will likely feature
low to mid 60s dewpoints, but surface heating will be minimal and
mid-level lapse rates will be poor, owing to widespread cloud cover
and precipitation. Even so, the very strong large-scale forcing for
ascent associated with this system will likely lead to the
development of narrow, but strongly forced convective line. Current
expectation is for this line to impact land areas from northeastern
SC across eastern NC and the Outer Banks. Primary threat within this
line would be damaging wind gusts, but a brief tornado or two is
also possible.
 
A low-probability severe threat may linger during the morning hours
farther south over the FL Peninsula. Here, some deep convection is
still possible along the primary surface trough before it moves
offshore.

..Mosier.. 12/16/2023

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