Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 16, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 16, 2023 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated flashes are also possible along the northern California coast. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning. A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to be embedded within this troughing, one over the Mid-Atlantic and the other extending from northwestern Ontario into the Mid MS Valley. The eastern wave is expected to progress quickly northward across the Northeast while the western wave moves southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The western wave is then forecast to continue more eastward, ending the period extending from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Strong wind fields will accompany this wave, with a belt of 90 to 100 kt 500-mb flow likely across the Mid MS Valley throughout the day. However, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with its limited low-level moisture precluding thunderstorm development. There is a low probability that some limited low-level moisture reaches NJ, Long Island, and portions of southern New England early Monday morning, just ahead of a surface low associated with the eastern shortwave. If this occurs, some convective structures are possible. Most of this convection would be shallow, but the potential exists for a few cores to become deep enough for lightning. Strong kinematic fields suggests any deeper, more sustained cores could produce damaging gusts, but the overall uncertainty of the scenario merits leaving the area free of severe probabilities for this outlook. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to move across northern CA and the Pacific Northwest on Monday. The lead shortwave is forecast to move from northern California into ID during the first half of the period while another shortwave moves along the Pacific Northwest coast during the second half. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could support a few isolated flashes along the northern CA coast. ..Mosier.. 12/16/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.