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SPC Dec 16, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for a few damaging gusts and tornadoes will increase by
tonight into Sunday morning across the Florida peninsula and Keys.

...Florida...
A weak surface low residing over the central Gulf of Mexico will
move slowly northeastward, strengthening as mid-level troughing now
moving southeastward into the western Gulf advances.  Warm advection
ahead of this system is yielding widespread clouds/precipitation
across the eastern Gulf and much of Florida and the Keys late this
morning.  Though lightning has remained offshore, shallow convection
near the Keys has exhibited transient rotation, aided by enhanced
easterly low-level flow which veers weakly with height.  While a
waterspout or brief tornado cannot be ruled out with this activity,
weak lapse rates/meager instability should preclude appreciable
tornado threat through the day.

Later this evening/overnight, as the upper system advances across
the Gulf and the surface low nears -- and eventually reaches --
Florida, stronger deep-layer flow gradually overspreading the
Peninsula will allow some increase in conditional tornado potential.
 However, with inland instability forecast to remain weak, will
maintain 5% tornado probability, along with potential for locally
gusty/damaging winds.

..Goss/Thornton.. 12/16/2023

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