Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 16, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 16, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. Primary severe hazard is damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coastal Vicinity... Overall forecast philosophy remains similar to the previous outlook, and only minor changes have been made based on latest forecast guidance. A rapidly deepening surface low is forecast to be near the northeast FL/GA coastal vicinity Sunday morning. This low will quickly lift north/northeast across the Carolinas through Sunday evening, and the Mid-Atlantic overnight. Strong east/southeasterly low-level flow will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints along the SC/NC coast, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints a bit further inland along the coastal plain. However, destabilization will be muted due to widespread cloud cover, ongoing showers ahead of the surface low, and poor low-level lapse rates. In fact, low-level instability will remain quite poor, with forecast soundings indicating much of the instability focused above the 850-700 mb layer, near the top of the deep moist layer. Low-level shear will be quite impressive, with forecast hodographs being rather large and curved. This may result in some rotation of convective elements. However, given expected poor low-level thermodynamics, tornado potential should remain low/brief. Strongly forced convection within this strongly sheared environment also will pose a risk for isolated strong/damaging gusts. Further south along the GA coast into portions of the FL Peninsula, a low severe risk may persist for a few hours during the morning along the primary surface trough before convection moves offshore. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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