Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 16, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 16, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few damaging gusts and tornadoes will increase by tonight into Sunday morning across the Florida peninsula and Keys. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes have been made to severe probabilities across FL and far southeast GA. Overall severe risk will remain conditional through the period given limited thermodynamic environment hindered by weak diurnal heating and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given increasing vertical shear, particularly in the low-levels later this evening/overnight, some risk for locally strong/damaging gusts and a tornado or two remains possible. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2023/ ...Florida... A weak surface low residing over the central Gulf of Mexico will move slowly northeastward, strengthening as mid-level troughing now moving southeastward into the western Gulf advances. Warm advection ahead of this system is yielding widespread clouds/precipitation across the eastern Gulf and much of Florida and the Keys late this morning. Though lightning has remained offshore, shallow convection near the Keys has exhibited transient rotation, aided by enhanced easterly low-level flow which veers weakly with height. While a waterspout or brief tornado cannot be ruled out with this activity, weak lapse rates/meager instability should preclude appreciable tornado threat through the day. Later this evening/overnight, as the upper system advances across the Gulf and the surface low nears -- and eventually reaches -- Florida, stronger deep-layer flow gradually overspreading the Peninsula will allow some increase in conditional tornado potential. However, with inland instability forecast to remain weak, will maintain 5% tornado probability, along with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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